Last race: Kevin Harvick dominated the field again in the O’Reilly Challenge 300 at Texas Motor Speedway, winning for the second straight week and third time in his last four races. It was the ninth Busch victory of what is already a stellar season for the Nextel Cup Champ. Two-time champion Terry Labonte ended his 29-year, 848-race driving career with a 36th-place finish after being feted Sunday before the race.

Next Race: Checker Auto Parts 500, Avondale, Ariz., Phoenix International Raceway (tri-oval, 1 mile, 11-degree banking in Turns 1-2, 9-degree banking in Turns 3-4).

Tens of thousands of NASCAR fans are in Phoenix for this weekend’s racing at the Phoenix International Raceway.
There will be races on Saturday, before the big Checker Auto Parts 500 on Sunday.

And then there were four. Four races left in the 2006 Nextel Cup season, and the way things have shaped up, it’s all going to come down to Homestead three weeks from Sunday.

Which is pretty cool, and was pretty much the point of changing to the Chase format, so bully for NASCAR.

Things never worked this well in ‘04 or ‘05, the first two Chase years. The first year, Kurt Busch basically had things locked up by the time the boys went to Homestead; all he needed to do was finish the race. Last year, Tony Stewart was similarly safe: only a big wreck could’ve undone his second title. This year, though, as we head into the second Atlanta race, get this: Matt Kenseth is in first place, and Jeff Gordon is in ninth place. It is mathematically possible (though not likely) that after Sunday’s race is over, Gordon could be in first, and Kenseth could be in ninth. That, friends, is close.

The next two events will take place on nearly identical 1.5-mile, high-banked, unrestricted intermediate superspeedways, in Atlanta and Texas, and as regular readers know (because I harp on it incessantly), Charlotte (where the Smokeless Set was two weeks ago) is the third identical piece of this triumvirate. The surfaces vary a bit from track to track, but the configurations and setups are darned close, meaning the guys who have been good in the first four races of 2006 on this track style are likely to be good again, provided mechanical problems don’t intervene. So expect to see this week’s picks and next week’s picks to look mighty similar.

Let’s take a look at the three drivers I like best this week, and a head-to-head selection, to boot.

Last Week: Denny Hamlin was very close to overtaking Jimmie Johnson, and winning me a 12-1 bet at Martinsville. Unfortunately, J.J. held off the rookie, so I had to accept winning a lopsided head-to-head bet, which basically turned the weekend into a wash. Hamlin easily topped Greg Biffle, though at -197, you’d certainly hope so. Anyway, with 1.5 units wagered, we profited by, ahem, 0.01 units. Buy yourself something pretty. For the year, we’ve netted a positive 21.45 units, and have given you winning weeks in 22 out of 31 events.

Kasey Kahne (6-1), 1/6th unit. Duh. Kahne has swept the first four events on this track type: he swept Charlotte, won here in Atlanta on a Monday (that week, Sunday’s race was rained out, which hopefully won’t be the case this weekend, though Friday’s qualifying did have to be scrubbed due to bad weather), and also in Texas. Without question, he’s currently the king of downforce (he also won Michigan earlier in the year, and California this Labor Day). His win here in the spring was a thing of beauty: he hung back, bided his time, and then absolutely dominated the event’s second half. There’ll be no surprises this week, but I expect Kahne to win again.

Jimmie Johnson (6-1), 1/6th unit. Yup, and if it’s not Kahne, it’ll be his closest rival from Charlotte two weeks ago, Johnson. J.J. has posted two seconds, a 6th and an 11th at this track type so far this year, and actually has the best two-year finishing average (4.9th place) at the A-C-T triumvirate. It also helps that Johnson is red hot, having climbed from ninth to third in the points in a mere month, and he sits just 41 back from leader Matt Kenseth (12-1). Johnson has five wins to Kahne’s six, but is obviously far more consistent. He’s the co-favorite here for a reason, and will give Kahne all he can handle.

Carl Edwards (18-1), 1/6th unit. I know, I know, what do I think this is, 2005? Other than Kenseth, the Roush cars have been an unmitigated disaster this year. Of course, just a single year ago, Edwards and Greg Biffle (10-1) were the talk of NASCAR, coming from nowhere to threaten Tony Stewart (8-1) for the points title. This year, neither made the Chase, and Edwards, who won four times last season (twice at this Atlanta track) hasn’t taken the checkers once this year. Part of that is inferior horsepower, and part of it is buzzard luck; I can remember races in Atlanta, Pocono and California that Edwards could’ve won with better luck. Anyway, fortune may favor Smilin’ Carl this week. He ran very well at Charlotte for a time last week (he wound up eighth), and never got a chance to defend his back-to-back wins at Atlanta this spring, as he collided with a non-contending car in Pit Lane early in the race. At three times the price of the favorites, this bet is a pretty good investment.

In the head-to-head matchup of the week, take Kahne over Tony Stewart (-140), 1 unit. By any measure, Smoke has had a disappointing season, but this is particularly glum: he’s averaged a 15.75th place at these unrestricted high-banked tracks, thanks to a couple of mediocre Charlotte efforts. Stewart did finish fifth here in the spring, so there’s a chance he finds some downforce magic and makes a serious run, but at this point I think it’s pretty crazy not to go with Kahne’s ‘06 track record (if you’ll pardon the pun). Rare has been the car that could take down the #9 at this kind of venue, and I don’t think it’ll happen this week. I’m taking Kahne.

Christopher Harris is a featured writer for the Professional Handicappers League. Read all of his articles at www.procappers.com

Unofficial * Subject To Change 

Date Site
Feb. 10 Budweiser Shootout at Daytona – Daytona International Speedway*
Feb. 18 Daytona International Speedway
Feb. 25 California Speedway———— OFF WEEK ————Mar. 11 Las Vegas Motor Speedway
Mar. 18 Atlanta Motor Speedway
Mar. 25 Bristol Motor Speedway
Apr. 1 Martinsville Speedway

(The 2007 schedule starting times and television information will be announced at a later date.

This week’s Nextel Cup competition in Texas will have to sort the contenders from the pretenders.
NASCAR Nextel Cup Dickies 500 - Texas Motor Speedway - Fort Worth, TX There are merely three weeks left in the “Chase for the Nextel Cup” and its time to discover who is serious regarding victory and who is there to pack out the lawn. Tony Stewart’s relentless power invaded NASCAR’s postseason corps Sunday at Atlanta Motor Speedway, where he won Week 7 of the Chase for the Nextel Cup.
Stewart, the two-time and ruling series victor, did not qualify for the ten-race Chase. But Stewart bagged his fourth triumph of the year and second during the Chase in the Bass Pro Shops 500 . Stewart In addition won Round 3 at Kansas Speedway on Oct. 1 in the identical No. 20 Home Depot Chevrolet.. Crew chief Greg Zipadelli said he intends to be entered at Texas Motor Speedway for Sunday’s next annual Dickies 500. Matt Kenseth will carry a 26-point lead above Jimmie Johnson into Fort Worth, where the spread from leading to seventh-place Jeff Gordon WEEK 8 is 146 points.

The eighth rivalry in the 2006 Chase for the NASCAR NEXTEL Cup, Sunday’s Dickies 500 at Texas Motor Speedway, will start with a reshaped contest at the top of the NASCAR NEXTEL Cup Series standings. Just 84 points separate the top five drivers, the closest such margin after eight events in the Chase’s three-season history. Anticipate additional spectacles at Texas, one of the course’ fastest tracks and a site where myriad Chase participants go beyond.  7 of the ten Chase competitors switched positions following previous Sunday’s happening at Atlanta Motor Speedway. Just 146 points separate the top seven drivers, the closest such margin in favour of eight events in the Chase’s three-season narration.

Outlook From the Back End. 

Next to three races left in the Pursuit, Jeff Gordon finds himself seventh in the standings, 146 points out of primary site. In order for him to attain his fifth NASCAR NEXTEL Cup Tournament, Gordon needs to deliver first-rate performances at the only current series tracks that he has yet to deliver a victory: Texas Motor Speedway, Phoenix International Raceway, and Homestead-Miami Speedway.

About Texas Motor Speedway

Texas Motor Speedway’s erection began in 1995 . The earliest configuration called for an bizarre dual banking structure that had 24 degrees of banking for stock cars and 8 degrees for open-wheel cars.
On April 5, 1997, Mark Martin won the first NASCAR affair at TMS, a Busch Course episode. Jeff Burton won the commencing Cup Series contest in front of a sellout swarm on the next afternoon.
In 1998, Turn 4 at Texas Motor Speedway was reshaped to ease the transition from the turns to the front straightaway. That April, Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s career got a raise after his first Busch Series triumph.
But after that race, a second refurbishment started and was completed in less than two months. The design eliminated the dual banking and gave the circuit its present build.  In 2005, TMS was awarded a fall Nextel Cup date to go with its April date. The 2005 Dickies 500 was the 34th race of that season’s 36-competition agenda. Ivers have visited Victory Circle at Texas: Jeff Burton, Dale Earnhardt, Jr., Kasey Kahne, Matt Kenseth and Mark Martin.